Zach Stein-Perlman
Titles as the sources gave them. In 2 entries, with 3 checked quotations.
What they said
Newest first. Each quotation was found word for word in the source.
“Now, all of us forecast that Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) will likely arrive at some point in 2027 (assuming no substantial deliberate slowdown). We also predict a 35-65% chance that Top-Expert-Dominating AI (TED-AI), AIs that can automate all white-collar work, will arrive before 2028.”
“If SAR is coming in 2027, it is incredibly urgent to pause or substantially ‘pace’ frontier AI development, with the ideal being an industry-wide pause followed by an international agreement.”
“Companies are not on track to align a SAR, and using a misaligned SAR to do recursive self-improvement (RSI) will put us in an extremely bad position.”
In the Base
Every entry they appear in.
AIFP: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All
Zach Stein-Perlman links the AI Futures Project's timelines update. The project's forecasters now expect a superhuman AI researcher likely in 2027, citing METR's estimate of Anthropic's AI-driven speedup, and call for a pause. This is a short linkpost; the full post was not read.
Ajeya: AI is dramatically accelerating AI research right now
Zach Stein-Perlman's linkpost on the AI Alignment Forum reproduces the opening of an essay by Ajeya Cotra. It argues that METR's report on Anthropic, read against Anthropic's own Responsible Scaling Policy, shows the "dramatic acceleration" threshold has already been crossed.