Ria Viswanathan
Forecasting Research Institute
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Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
In a Chicago Fed working paper, researchers surveyed 69 economists, 52 AI industry and policy professionals, 38 superforecasters and 401 members of the public on AI's effects on the US economy. Unconditional forecasts stay near historical trends; under a rapid-progress scenario, economists forecast labor force participation falling to 55% by 2050. These are forecasts, not measurements.