The BasePeople

Martha Gimbel

The Budget Lab at Yale

Titles as the sources gave them. In 1 entry, with 5 checked quotations.

What they said

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“Using an approach called synthetic differences-in-differences (SDID) that addresses these challenges, we generally find no statistically or economically significant effects as of yet.”
What We Do and Don't Know About How AI is Affecting the Labor MarketThe Budget Lab at Yale, May 7, 2026. Speaking as: Other. The authors' headline result, from the opening paragraphs: employment and wages in AI-exposed occupations compared with a weighted group of unexposed ones.
“These figures indicate positive effects in the most recent quarter—roughly half a percentage point increase in the entire sample, and more for the 16-34 year old subsample—but both are statistically insignificant as of the first quarter of 2026.”
What We Do and Don't Know About How AI is Affecting the Labor MarketThe Budget Lab at Yale, May 7, 2026. Speaking as: Other. From the main text, on the appendix figures for the unemployment rate in exposed occupations, for all workers and for ages 16 to 34.
“This means that analysis of exposure metrics could actually hide effects if (for instance) half of “exposed” occupations see their jobs expand and half see their jobs contract—the average could be zero.”
What We Do and Don't Know About How AI is Affecting the Labor MarketThe Budget Lab at Yale, May 7, 2026. Speaking as: Other. The authors explain why occupation-level exposure scores may miss real effects, which is why the Budget Lab's own tracker relies on other measures.
“First, LLMs are constantly improving, such that the economic impacts from early models seem likely to be smaller than those of recent models.”
What We Do and Don't Know About How AI is Affecting the Labor MarketThe Budget Lab at Yale, May 7, 2026. Speaking as: Other. The first of the caveats the authors list on their main finding.
“If labor market effects of AI are currently limited to a narrow slice of the workforce, other datasets and research designs would be better suited to identify them.”
What We Do and Don't Know About How AI is Affecting the Labor MarketThe Budget Lab at Yale, May 7, 2026. Speaking as: Other. The authors' closing caveat about what the Current Population Survey can detect in narrow groups such as recent graduates.

In the Base

Every entry they appear in.

  1. ResearchThe Budget Lab at YaleWrote it

    What We Do and Don't Know About How AI is Affecting the Labor Market

    The Budget Lab at Yale compares employment, wages and unemployment in AI-exposed occupations with a weighted group of unexposed occupations, using Current Population Survey data. Gimbel, Kendall and Nunn report no statistically or economically significant effect so far, and caution that exposure measures are imperfect, the survey is thin for narrow groups, and the picture could change quickly.