Lee C. Tucker
U.S. Census Bureau
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What they said
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“Regression adjusted employment of early career workers in the most AI-exposed quintile of industry-state cells declined by 12% over the 10 quarters following the introduction of ChatGPT, even as employment in less exposed industries has remained stable.”
“Using detailed tabulations from matched employer-employee administrative data, I document evidence of an immediate, sizable, and persistent decrease in the level of early career (22-24 year old) hires following introduction of ChatGPT within the industry-state cells that are most exposed to AI.”
“However, triple difference estimates provide some evidence of earlier trend shifts on employment, hiring, and separations around the onset of the COVID pandemic. I discuss potential explanations, including the increase in remote work and increased educational attainment among workers in AI-exposed occupations.”
“A historical decomposition suggests that up to one quarter of relative early career employment declines through 2025q2 may be attributable to monetary policy shocks through 2023, but the analysis does not find evidence that these shocks can explain the rapid decline in hires at the most AI-exposed firms in comparison to others.”
“The results of this analysis encourage some caution in attributing all of this to AI.”
In the Base
Every entry they appear in.
You’re (not) hired: Artificial intelligence and early career hiring in the Quarterly Workforce Indicators
Lee C. Tucker's Census Bureau working paper compares industries by AI exposure in administrative employer-employee data. Hires of 22-24-year-olds in the most exposed fifth fell about 9% relative to others when ChatGPT was released and stayed down; their adjusted employment fell 12% over ten quarters. Tucker finds earlier trend shifts and advises some caution in attributing it all to AI.