Kathryn Bonney

“During the supplement reference period (Nov 2025-Jan 2026), 18% of firms used AI in a business function, rising to 32% on an employment-weighted basis; adoption is expected to reach 22% within six months.”

“AI-driven employment change instances remain modest, with only about 5% of AI-using firms reporting any headcount impact – distributed nearly equally between increases (2.3% firm-weighted and 3.7% employment-weighted) and decreases (2.0% firm-weighted and 2.4% employment-weighted).”

“Although AI correlates with superior firm performance, its current impact is defined primarily by task augmentation rather than substitution, leaving firm employment largely unaffected.”

“Functional breadth and operational investment are positively associated with employment decreases, whereas worker-task integration shows no significant link to headcount reduction once functional integration and operational investment are taken into account.”

“An important limitation is that worker-use measures are reported by firm respondents rather than directly by employees and thus reflect firm-level assessments of worker behavior rather than independent worker reports.”