J Dmitri Gallow
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Instrumental convergence is incoherent (so pls slightly lower your p(extinction))
According to the excerpt, Arepo, who says they are not an expert, argues in a crossposted work-in-progress that the concept of instrumental convergence is murky, belongs to a class of pre-empirical predictions with a low success rate, and may be unfixable. Arepo suggests readers slightly lower their estimates of extinction risk.