Anders Humlum

“What does not move is the surface—recorded hours and earnings. Using difference-in-differences, we estimate precise null effects at both the worker and workplace levels, ruling out effects larger than 2% two years after ChatGPT’s launch.”

“While we replicate the pattern of declining early-career employment in exposed occupations in Denmark, our difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the declines are not driven by firms adopting AI chatbots.”

“Occupational mobility is the one margin where these rapid currents break through to administrative labor market outcomes: workers who use AI chatbots are more likely to have transitioned into new occupations, particularly into roles where workers have greater discretion over their toolsets.”

“If so, the absence of measurable labor market effects is not evidence that nothing is happening—but rather that transformation is occurring on margins that conventional economic statistics do not capture.”

“For instance, adopting firms might expand by poaching workers from non-adopting competitors, biasing our workplace employment estimates upward. Alternatively, if firms adjust labor demand in anticipation of AI chatbots—rather than based on their actual adoption—the estimates would be biased toward zero.”