The BaseResearchFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Tracking AI’s Contribution to GDP Growth

Two St. Louis Fed researchers add up the growth contributions of information-processing equipment, software, R&D and data-center investment as AI-related spending. They report these supplied 39% of real GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 (36% without data centers) against 28% in 2000, which has no data-center figure, and fell back in the third quarter.

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Why it matters

The same thing, for different readers.

What it means for you

Business spending on AI-related equipment, software, research and data centers supplied 39% of US growth in the first three quarters of 2025. It measures spending, not what AI tools produce.

For lawmakers

Uses federal statistics to show how much recent US growth rests on AI-related investment; the authors expect these categories to stay significant into 2026 and beyond.

For researchers

Growth accounting with broad categories as stand-ins for AI spending (not all R&D is AI-related), an imputed September data-center figure, and a 2000 comparison without data centers.

In their own words

Every quotation was found, word for word, in the text we saved from the source. That shows the words are there; it does not make them true, or prove the speaker meant them as quoted.

From the source’s own text.

“Together, the AI categories contributed 0.97 percentage points to real GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 (0.90 percentage points, excluding data centers, for which data were not available in 2000), higher than the 0.81 percentage points in 2000.”
Hannah Rubinton, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThe authors' headline comparison with the dot-com year 2000; the 2000 figure has no data-center component.
Found word for word in the source
“Through the third quarter of 2025, these categories made up 39% (36% excluding data centers) of total GDP growth versus 28% in 2000.”
Hannah Rubinton, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThe same comparison as a share of total real GDP growth.
Found word for word in the source
“Together the four categories contributed 1.3 percentage points to real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 and 1.16 percentage points to real GDP growth in the second quarter, but the combined contribution leveled off to 0.48 percentage points in the third quarter.”
Hannah Rubinton, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThe quarter-by-quarter pattern of the four categories' combined contribution.
Found word for word in the source
“Our analysis suggests that the recent investments in AI-related categories have contributed significantly to the real GDP growth in 2025. It has surpassed the contribution of IT components to the real GDP growth made during the dot-com boom, both in levels and as a share of GDP.”
Hannah Rubinton, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThe authors' conclusion in the closing section.
Found word for word in the source

How the finding was reached

In our words, from the source. Weigh the finding by how it was made.

What was done
Growth accounting. For information-processing equipment, software and R&D (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and data-center construction (Census Bureau, from 2014), the authors compute each category's contribution to real GDP growth in annualized percentage points, using a Fisher-Tornqvist formula, for the first three quarters of 2025, and compare the average with the four quarters of 2000, the height of the dot-com boom.
What it found
The four categories together contributed 1.3, 1.16 and 0.48 percentage points to real GDP growth in the first, second and third quarters of 2025: 0.97 points, or 39% of growth (36% without data centers), over the three quarters, against 0.81 points, 28%, in 2000. The authors say the third-quarter fall reflects slower investment growth, not lower investment levels, which stayed elevated.
What it does not show
The categories are broad stand-ins for AI spending; the authors note not all R&D is AI-related. The September 2025 data-center figure was imputed from July and August. The 2000 comparison has no data-center component, so the like-for-like figures are 0.90 vs 0.81 points and 36% vs 28%. It measures investment's contribution to growth, not AI's effect on productivity, jobs or incomes. A blog post that says its views are not necessarily those of the St. Louis Fed or the Federal Reserve System.
Status
A report

The record

Questions
What happens to work, income and the economy?
People
Hannah Rubinton (Wrote it, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) · Bontu Ankit Patro (Wrote it, Research associate, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
What we read
We read the whole source.
Found by
A research pass: work, income and the economy, gathered October 13, 2026, via research-work (tier 1: the source’s own channel or an official record)
Cite this
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “Tracking AI’s Contribution to GDP Growth”, January 12, 2026. Entry in the Ctrl AI Base, https://ctrlai.com/base/st-louis-fed-2026-01-12-tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth
Our notesThe St. Louis Fed site would not serve a scripted fetch (an HTTP/2 stream error, then a timeout) and the research pass's text file for it was empty, so the text is the Internet Archive's copy of the page, captured 12 October 2026 (Wayback), which shows the date January 12, 2026 and both authors. Compare it with the live page if the wording matters. The quarterly figures re-add to the post's totals (1.30, 1.16 and 0.48 points; 0.97 over the nine months). The 39% vs 28% comparison is not like for like, since 2000 has no data-center figure; the post gives the like-for-like 36% and 0.90 points beside it. The saved text includes the page's menus and the formula spread over lines. The post is about the investment boom's contribution to GDP, not about employment.