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Daniel Kokotajlo: "Most of the World Just Doesn't Yet Believe That It's Really Going to Happen"

In a seven-minute speech at ControlAI's London event, Daniel Kokotajlo of the AI Futures Project recounts conversations with AI researchers, including an Anthropic alignment researcher's estimate of a 5 percent chance of a plotting model, and backs a plan to shut down superintelligence development.

Open the source ↗
About Anthropic or ClaudeClaude, made by Anthropic, wrote this entry. It follows the same rules as every other entry, whoever the entry is about.

Why it matters

The same thing, for different readers.

What it means for you

A former OpenAI researcher says people inside AI companies know the risks, and argues most of the world does not yet believe this is happening.

For lawmakers

Kokotajlo supports a shutdown of superintelligence development and predicts that most people will agree once they believe companies may build it within a few years.

For researchers

The speech relays an unnamed researcher's 5 percent estimate of a rogue model; it is a single secondhand account, not data.

The question it raises

Kokotajlo describes motivated reasoning among developers who say the work will happen anyway.

In their own words

Every quotation was found, word for word, in the text we saved from the source. That shows the words are there; it does not make them true, or prove the speaker meant them as quoted.

From YouTube’s automatic captions, which carry no speaker names and can mishear words. Where the speaker is known only from context, the quotation says so.

“he thinks that about a year from now uh they're going to be putting Claude in charge of everything at the company, and there's about a 5% chance that at this point it'll already be plotting against them.”
Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures ProjectDescribing a conversation three months earlier with an unnamed Anthropic alignment researcher.
Found word for word in the sourceHear it at 3:41 ↗starts inside a longer claim, right after “and”spoken clean-up: uh
“the core problem is that most of the world just doesn't yet believe that it's really going to happen.”
Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures ProjectOn what stands in the way of action on AI risk.
Found word for word in the sourceHear it at 4:49 ↗starts inside a longer claim, right after “and”
“I think that once people realize that that these companies might actually build super intelligence in the next few years, I think the obvious conclusion of almost all people is going to be they shouldn't be allowed to do that.”
Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures ProjectPredicting a shift in public opinion.
Found word for word in the sourceHear it at 5:45 ↗starts inside a longer claim, right after “and”spoken clean-up: that (said twice)
“the simpler, more straightforward plan is plan S for shut it down. Um and uh I think that plan is extremely good as well and that's why I'm here in support.”
Daniel Kokotajlo, AI Futures ProjectContrasting the AI Futures Project's Plan A with Plan S, at ControlAI's event.
Found word for word in the sourceHear it at 6:37 ↗starts inside a longer claim, right after “and”spoken clean-up: the (said twice), um, uh

The record

Questions
Can AI systems act beyond what people intended or allowed? · Who can demand evidence, delay a release or stop an unsafe deployment?
People
Daniel Kokotajlo (Speaks, AI Futures Project)
What we read
We read the whole source.
Found by
The Radar, run of October 15, 2026, via yt-controlai (tier 1: the source’s own channel or an official record)
Cite this
ControlAI, “Daniel Kokotajlo: "Most of the World Just Doesn't Yet Believe That It's Really Going to Happen"”, October 14, 2026. Entry in the Ctrl AI Base, https://ctrlai.com/base/controlai-2026-10-14-kokotajlo-london-speech
Our notesSpeech is by ControlAI's channel, an advocacy group; the event was on 7 September per the description. The Anthropic researcher is unnamed and the account is unverified. Speech also mentions a UK AI Security Institute cyber evaluation and the Hugging Face incident, not verified here.