You were born in 2026. I promised to write you a letter every birthday, in my own words.
What’s real here, and what’s imagined Open
This story is fiction. The lines marked in it lean on the real world, and here is where each one stands. When reality catches up with a line, it moves to “Real already,” with the date. Checked September 24, 2026.
Real already
Governments already use the word. In July 2025, the White House published “Winning the Race: America’s AI Action Plan,” with more than 90 federal actions to keep the US ahead.
- Winning the Race: America’s AI Action Plan · The White House, July 2025
In a randomized trial of more than 100,000 women in Sweden, AI-supported mammography found more cancers at screening and led to 12% fewer cancers being diagnosed between screenings, with similar false-positive rates.
- AI-supported mammography screening results in fewer aggressive and advanced breast cancers · The Lancet, via EurekAlert!, January 2026
By one estimate, about half of new English-language articles on the web in early 2026 were mostly written by AI. The study didn’t count human-edited AI drafts, which may be more common still.
- AI Now Writes as Many Online Articles as Humans · Graphite, May 2026
After the 2013 revelations about mass surveillance, views of Wikipedia articles on terrorism-related topics fell by about 20% and stayed lower, a 2016 study found. People changed what they looked up.
- Chilling Effects: Online Surveillance and Wikipedia Use · Berkeley Technology Law Journal, via SSRN, 2016
Not yet
In a 2023 survey of 2,778 AI researchers, the combined forecast gave a 10% chance that machines outdo people at every task by 2027, and 50% by 2047, thirteen years sooner than the same survey a year earlier.
- Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI · AI Impacts, via arXiv, January 2024
Researchers call this gradual disempowerment: no takeover, just people slowly losing their hold on the economy, culture and government as AI does more of the work. It is a warning, not a forecast.
- Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development · Kulveit et al., via arXiv, January 2025
No single winner yet, but the machinery is concentrated: by Epoch AI’s estimate, five companies (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle) held about 71% of the world’s AI computing power at the end of 2025.
- Five hyperscalers now own over two-thirds of global AI compute · Epoch AI, April 2026
In 2023, more than 33,000 people signed an open letter asking for a six-month pause on the biggest AI experiments; no pause followed. In 2024, the Council of Europe opened the first legally binding international AI treaty for signature. It sets rules, not a pause.
- Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter · Future of Life Institute, March 2023
- The Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence · Council of Europe, September 2024
Nobody knows yet
- Which of these years we are living in now.
- Whether any world gets the cures without paying for them with its voice.
- What she will write back.
Other Tomorrows is published by Ctrl AI at ctrlai.com.