The BaseResearchLiberty Street Economics (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelined
In a New York Fed blog post, Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington and Amanda Pallais argue that remote work, more than generative AI, explains the rise in unemployment among young college graduates. They estimate it accounts for 64% of the increase from 2017-19 to 2022-24, drawing on survey data and one company's records, and say AI may matter more later.
Why it matters
The same thing, for different readers.
What it means for you
For recent graduates, the post says rising unemployment owes more to remote work, which cuts training and mentoring, than to AI, though AI may matter more later.
For lawmakers
The post ties youth unemployment mainly to how firms organize work, such as return-to-office rules and mentoring, rather than to AI; its evidence on mechanism is from one large company.
For researchers
Compares remotable with non-remotable occupations and holds AI exposure constant, but the 64% is a back-of-the-envelope figure and the mechanism evidence is from one firm.
The question it raises
The post treats a first job as training: when mentoring needs proximity, distance can shut young people out of the learning that later work depends on.
In their own words
Every quotation was found, word for word, in the text we saved from the source. That shows the words are there; it does not make them true, or prove the speaker meant them as quoted.
From the source’s own text.
“Since so many young college graduates are in remotable occupations, our back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that remote work can explain 64 percent of the increase in unemployment for all young college graduates between 2017−19 and 2022−24.”
“Further, the timing of this surge suggests that remote work—not generative AI—explains the bulk of the rise in youth unemployment.”
“But the uptick in youth unemployment rates predates the rapid diffusion of AI. Moreover, even when we hold occupations’ exposure to AI constant, we find that the differences between younger and older workers persist in both remotable and non-remotable jobs.”
“Of course, generative AI and other factors may play a more primary role in determining the employment patterns of younger workers going forward. Nonetheless, the evidence to date suggests that the rise of remote work has meaningfully contributed to the recent challenges facing young college graduates.”
“Working with proprietary data from a Fortune 500 company, we are able to shed light on the underlying reasons for these labor market changes.”
How the finding was reached
In our words, from the source. Weigh the finding by how it was made.
- What was done
- Compares unemployment of college graduates under 29 with older graduates in US Current Population Survey data, splitting occupations by how easily their tasks can be done remotely and checking the result with occupations' AI exposure held constant. A back-of-the-envelope calculation gives the share explained by remote work. Evidence on how remote work affects feedback, mentoring, work quality and hiring comes from proprietary data from one Fortune 500 company, including its return-to-office mandates.
- What it found
- Unemployment among graduates under 29 rose from 3.1% on average in 2017-19 to 3.7% in 2022-25, while it edged down for more experienced graduates (1.9% to 1.8%). The rise is concentrated in occupations that can be done remotely (almost 1 percentage point, 2017-19 to 2022-24); in non-remotable jobs the young-old gap returned to baseline after 2020. The authors estimate remote work explains 64% of the increase between 2017-19 and 2022-24. They say the rise predates the rapid spread of generative AI and that the age gap persists with AI exposure held constant. At the company studied, distance cut feedback and mentoring, and distributed teams hired more experienced workers even after offices reopened.
- What it does not show
- The 64% is a back-of-the-envelope figure, and the evidence on mechanism comes from one Fortune 500 company. The authors say generative AI and other factors may play a more primary role going forward. Outside that company, the case rests on timing and comparisons across occupation groups. It is a blog post, and the page says its views are the authors' and not necessarily those of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System.
- Status
- A report
The record
- Questions
- What happens to work, income and the economy?
- People
- Natalia Emanuel (Wrote it, Research economist, Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York) · Emma Harrington (Wrote it, Assistant professor of economics, University of Virginia) · Amanda Pallais (Wrote it, Professor of economics, Harvard University)
- What we read
- We read the whole source.
- Found by
- A research pass: work, income and the economy, gathered October 13, 2026, via
research-work(tier 1: the source’s own channel or an official record) - Cite this
- Liberty Street Economics (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), “Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelined”, June 1, 2026. Entry in the Ctrl AI Base, https://ctrlai.com/base/new-york-fed-2026-06-01-remote-work-young-graduates