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Nuclear war and malicious use of AI threaten end of humanity by 2100, says Lancet assessment

The Guardian reports on the new Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, which lists 17 major threats over the next 75 years. It names malicious use of AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict as carrying risks of human extinction, while saying their likelihood is low and that each threat has a realistic route to action.

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Why it matters

The same thing, for different readers.

What it means for you

A commission convened by a leading medical journal ranks malicious AI use alongside nuclear war as unlikely but potentially extinction-level threats to human health this century.

For lawmakers

The commission urges governments to fund anticipation, prevention and preparation for a wider set of threats, and says its 17-threat list will be updated every year.

For researchers

Threats were ranked by modelled healthy years lost (disability-adjusted life years), placing AI misuse inside a public-health framework rather than a technology-industry one.

In their own words

Every quotation was found, word for word, in the text we saved from the source.

From the source’s own text.

“Malicious use of AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine carry risks of extinction in the next 75 years”
Lancet Commission Global Threats To HealthThe commission's report, as quoted by the Guardian, which adds that the report rates their likelihood as low.
Matches the source exactly
“The scale of harm, should they be realised, would inflict an apocalypse on humanity.”
The LancetA Lancet editorial published alongside the report, as quoted by the Guardian.
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“We’re starting from the premise that if you are a policymaker today, whether at the global multilateral level or at the national level, these are the potential threats that you could face, and this is the magnitude by which, if you act, you can actually make a difference.”
Ibrahim Abubakar, Commission member; professor of infectious disease epidemiology, UCLAbubakar, a commission member, explaining that the list is meant as a guide for action, not to scare.
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“There’s a much larger number of threats that we need to worry about, and governments really need to dedicate some money and staff to the task of anticipation, prevention and preparation for this more diverse set of threats.”
Christopher Murray, Commission co-chair; director, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonMurray, the commission's co-chair, on how its view widened beyond conflict, climate and pandemics.
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The record

Questions
How is AI used in attacks, defence and war?
People
Kat Lay (Wrote it) · Christopher Murray (Speaks, Commission co-chair; director, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington) · Ibrahim Abubakar (Speaks, Commission member; professor of infectious disease epidemiology, UCL)
What we read
We read the whole source.
Found by
The Radar, run of October 12, 2026, via the-guardian-ai (tier 2: a major outlet’s own reporting)
Cite this
The Guardian, “Nuclear war and malicious use of AI threaten end of humanity by 2100, says Lancet assessment”, October 11, 2026. Entry in the Ctrl AI Base, https://ctrlai.com/base/guardian-2026-10-11-lancet-threats-humanity-2100
Our notesDate: triage has 2026-10-10T23:01Z; the Guardian page is dated Sun 11 Oct 2026 (01.01 CEST) and the URL says oct/11, so the source's own date 2026-10-11 is used. The report and editorial quotes are second-hand (via the Guardian); speaker ids for the commission report and The Lancet editorial are org ids, not people or the outlet. AI is one of 17 threats; the article gives no AI-specific numbers. The Guardian marks the article as 'Supported by' a funder (global development section). Kat Lay's role is not stated in the saved text.