The BaseOfficialU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Projections - 2025-2035
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects US employment to grow 3.5% from 2025 to 2035, slower than in the previous decade. It expects AI to add jobs in computing, data and electricity, and automation tools including AI to cut demand for office and administrative support, the group projected to shrink most, by 752,100 jobs.
Why it matters
The same thing, for different readers.
What it means for you
The government’s ten-year outlook still has jobs growing overall, but expects office and administrative work to shrink the most, partly because of AI tools.
For lawmakers
BLS now publishes AI exposure categories for occupations alongside its projections, an official common reference for debates on AI and jobs.
For researchers
BLS builds new technologies into its projections only on convincing evidence of a structural change, so these are a conservative baseline, not a forecast of disruption.
In their own words
Every quotation was found, word for word, in the text we saved from the source. That shows the words are there; it does not make them true, or prove the speaker meant them as quoted.
From the source’s own text.
“Total employment is projected to increase from 170.3 million to 176.2 million and grow 3.5 percent, which is slower than the 10.9 percent growth recorded over the 2015-25 decade.”
“the continued integration of automation tools, including those powered by AI, into workflows is likely to reduce demand for several office and administrative support occupations.”
“This occupational group is projected to decline at the fastest pace (-4.0 percent) and to shed 752,100 jobs over the 2025-35 decade, the most of any major occupational group.”
“The use of generative AI software, which can be leveraged to automate repetitive tasks and speed up certain processes, may limit demand for some jobs in the arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupational group.”
“Accelerated AI adoption is also expected to support employment growth in the computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services industry.”
How the finding was reached
In our words, from the source. Weigh the finding by how it was made.
- What was done
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official ten-year projections of US employment by industry and occupation, 2025 to 2035, released with a new data product that grades occupations by their exposure to AI.
- What it found
- Total employment is projected to grow 3.5% (170.3 million to 176.2 million), slower than the 10.9% of 2015–25. Office and administrative support is projected to fall the most of any group, 4.0% or 752,100 jobs, partly as automation tools including AI reduce demand; computer and mathematical occupations grow 7.3%, and data processing and hosting 25.1%, driven by AI adoption.
- What it does not show
- Projections, not measurements. BLS says the precision of its figures does not account for the inherent uncertainty of long-term predictions, and that it applies adjustments for new technologies conservatively, when there is convincing evidence of a long-term structural change.
- Status
- Official statistics
The record
- Questions
- What happens to work, income and the economy?
- What we read
- We read the whole source.
- Found by
- A research pass: work, income and the economy, gathered October 13, 2026, via
research-work(tier 1: the source’s own channel or an official record) - Cite this
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment Projections - 2025-2035”, August 27, 2026. Entry in the Ctrl AI Base, https://ctrlai.com/base/bls-2026-08-27-employment-projections-2025-2035